U.S. Macro Analysis

FRED_SERIES = {
    # Rates
    'fed_funds':    'FEDFUNDS',
    'treasury_2y':   'DGS2',
    'treasury_10y':  'DGS10',
    'treasury_30y':  'DGS30',
    # Inflation
    'cpi':           'CPIAUCSL',         # index level, YoY
    'core_cpi':      'CPILFESL',         # index level, YoY
    'pce':           'PCEPI',            # index level, YoY
    'breakeven_5y':  'T5YIE',
    'breakeven_10y': 'T10YIE',
    # Growth & employment
    'gdp_growth':    'A191RL1Q225SBEA',  # real GDP QoQ annualized, already %
    'unemployment':  'UNRATE',
    'nfp':           'PAYEMS',           # total nonfarm payrolls, thousands
    # Federal debt
    'debt_to_gdp':   'GFDEGDQ188S',
    'total_debt':    'GFDEBTN',          # millions, dollars
    'interest_pmts': 'A091RC1Q027SBEA',  # net interest, billions, quarterly
}

print('Fetching FRED series...')
raw = fetch_multi(FRED_SERIES)

# Transform price indices to 12-month YoY %
for key in ('cpi', 'core_cpi', 'pce'):
    s = raw.get(key, pd.Series(dtype=float))
    raw[key] = s.pct_change(12) * 100 if not s.empty else s

print(f'\nDone. {sum(1 for s in raw.values() if not s.empty)}/{len(raw)} series loaded.')

ffr  = raw['fed_funds']
t2y  = raw['treasury_2y']
t10y = raw['treasury_10y']
t30y = raw['treasury_30y']

# 2s10s yield curve spread
common = t2y.index.intersection(t10y.index)
spread = (t10y.loc[common] - t2y.loc[common]).dropna() if len(common) > 0 else pd.Series(dtype=float)

curr_ffr    = latest(ffr)
curr_2y     = latest(t2y)
curr_10y    = latest(t10y)
curr_30y    = latest(t30y)
curr_spread = latest(spread)
ffr_change  = change_1y(ffr)

display(HTML(render_cards([
    {'label': 'Fed Funds Rate', 'value': fmt_pct(curr_ffr)},
    {'label': '2Y Treasury',    'value': fmt_pct(curr_2y)},
    {'label': '10Y Treasury',   'value': fmt_pct(curr_10y)},
    {'label': '30Y Treasury',   'value': fmt_pct(curr_30y)},
    {'label': '2s10s Spread',   'value': (f'{curr_spread:+.2f}%' if curr_spread is not None else 'N/A')},
    {'label': 'FFR 1Y Change',  'value': (f'{ffr_change:+.2f}pp' if ffr_change is not None else 'N/A')},
])))

plt.figure(figsize=(8, 4.5))

for s, label, color, lw, ls in [
    (ffr, 'Fed Funds', FL_BLUE, 2.0, '-'),
    (t2y, '2Y', FL_SLATE, 1.4, '--'),
    (t10y, '10Y', FL_AMBER, 1.4, '--'),
]:
    if not s.empty:
        plt.plot(
            s.index,
            s.values,
            color=color,
            linewidth=lw,
            linestyle=ls,
            label=label
        )

plt.ylabel('Rate (%)')
plt.title('Key interest rates')
plt.gca().yaxis.set_major_formatter(
    mticker.FuncFormatter(lambda v, _: f'{v:.1f}%')
)
plt.gca().xaxis.set_major_locator(mdates.YearLocator(4))
plt.gca().xaxis.set_major_formatter(mdates.DateFormatter('%Y'))
plt.legend()
plt.tick_params(axis='both', which='both', length=0)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

plt.figure(figsize=(8, 4.5))

if not spread.empty:
    plt.fill_between(
        spread.index,
        spread.values,
        0,
        where=(spread.values >= 0),
        alpha=0.18,
        color=FL_BLUE,
        interpolate=True
    )
    plt.fill_between(
        spread.index,
        spread.values,
        0,
        where=(spread.values < 0),
        alpha=0.25,
        color=FL_RED,
        interpolate=True
    )
    plt.plot(
        spread.index,
        spread.values,
        color=FL_BLUE,
        linewidth=1.6
    )

plt.axhline(0, color=FL_GRID, linewidth=0.8)
plt.ylabel('Spread (%)')
plt.title('2s10s yield curve spread')
plt.gca().yaxis.set_major_formatter(
    mticker.FuncFormatter(lambda v, _: f'{v:+.2f}%')
)
plt.gca().xaxis.set_major_locator(mdates.YearLocator(4))
plt.gca().xaxis.set_major_formatter(mdates.DateFormatter('%Y'))
plt.tick_params(axis='both', which='both', length=0)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

rates_summary_df = pd.DataFrame([
    {
        'Metric': 'Fed Funds Rate',
        'Value': fmt_pct(curr_ffr) if curr_ffr is not None else 'N/A'
    },
    {
        'Metric': '2Y Treasury',
        'Value': fmt_pct(curr_2y) if curr_2y is not None else 'N/A'
    },
    {
        'Metric': '10Y Treasury',
        'Value': fmt_pct(curr_10y) if curr_10y is not None else 'N/A'
    },
    {
        'Metric': '30Y Treasury',
        'Value': fmt_pct(curr_30y) if curr_30y is not None else 'N/A'
    },
    {
        'Metric': '2s10s Spread',
        'Value': f'{curr_spread:+.2f}%' if curr_spread is not None else 'N/A'
    },
    {
        'Metric': 'FFR 1Y Change',
        'Value': f'{ffr_change:+.2f}pp' if ffr_change is not None else 'N/A'
    }
])

display(rates_summary_df)

cpi      = raw['cpi']
core_cpi = raw['core_cpi']
pce      = raw['pce']
be5      = raw['breakeven_5y']
be10     = raw['breakeven_10y']

curr_cpi  = latest(cpi)
curr_core = latest(core_cpi)
curr_pce  = latest(pce)
curr_be5  = latest(be5)
curr_be10 = latest(be10)
cpi_1y    = change_1y(cpi)

display(HTML(render_cards([
    {'label': 'CPI YoY',       'value': fmt_pct(curr_cpi)},
    {'label': 'Core CPI YoY',  'value': fmt_pct(curr_core)},
    {'label': 'PCE YoY',       'value': fmt_pct(curr_pce)},
    {'label': '5Y Breakeven',  'value': fmt_pct(curr_be5)},
    {'label': '10Y Breakeven', 'value': fmt_pct(curr_be10)},
    {'label': 'CPI 1Y Change', 'value': (f'{cpi_1y:+.2f}pp' if cpi_1y is not None else 'N/A')},
])))

plt.figure(figsize=(8, 4.5))

for s, label, color, lw, ls in [
    (ffr, 'Fed Funds', FL_BLUE, 2.0, '-'),
    (t2y, '2Y', FL_SLATE, 1.4, '--'),
    (t10y, '10Y', FL_AMBER, 1.4, '--'),
]:
    if not s.empty:
        plt.plot(
            s.index,
            s.values,
            color=color,
            linewidth=lw,
            linestyle=ls,
            label=label
        )

plt.ylabel('Rate (%)')
plt.title('Key interest rates')
plt.gca().yaxis.set_major_formatter(
    mticker.FuncFormatter(lambda v, _: f'{v:.1f}%')
)
plt.gca().xaxis.set_major_locator(mdates.YearLocator(4))
plt.gca().xaxis.set_major_formatter(mdates.DateFormatter('%Y'))
plt.legend()
plt.tick_params(axis='both', which='both', length=0)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

plt.figure(figsize=(8, 4.5))

if not spread.empty:
    plt.fill_between(
        spread.index,
        spread.values,
        0,
        where=(spread.values >= 0),
        alpha=0.18,
        color=FL_BLUE,
        interpolate=True
    )
    plt.fill_between(
        spread.index,
        spread.values,
        0,
        where=(spread.values < 0),
        alpha=0.25,
        color=FL_RED,
        interpolate=True
    )
    plt.plot(
        spread.index,
        spread.values,
        color=FL_BLUE,
        linewidth=1.6
    )

plt.axhline(0, color=FL_GRID, linewidth=0.8)
plt.ylabel('Spread (%)')
plt.title('2s10s yield curve spread')
plt.gca().yaxis.set_major_formatter(
    mticker.FuncFormatter(lambda v, _: f'{v:+.2f}%')
)
plt.gca().xaxis.set_major_locator(mdates.YearLocator(4))
plt.gca().xaxis.set_major_formatter(mdates.DateFormatter('%Y'))
plt.tick_params(axis='both', which='both', length=0)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

rates_summary_df = pd.DataFrame([
    {
        'Metric': 'Fed Funds Rate',
        'Value': fmt_pct(curr_ffr) if curr_ffr is not None else 'N/A'
    },
    {
        'Metric': '2Y Treasury',
        'Value': fmt_pct(curr_2y) if curr_2y is not None else 'N/A'
    },
    {
        'Metric': '10Y Treasury',
        'Value': fmt_pct(curr_10y) if curr_10y is not None else 'N/A'
    },
    {
        'Metric': '30Y Treasury',
        'Value': fmt_pct(curr_30y) if curr_30y is not None else 'N/A'
    },
    {
        'Metric': '2s10s Spread',
        'Value': f'{curr_spread:+.2f}%' if curr_spread is not None else 'N/A'
    },
    {
        'Metric': 'FFR 1Y Change',
        'Value': f'{ffr_change:+.2f}pp' if ffr_change is not None else 'N/A'
    }
])

display(rates_summary_df)

gdp   = raw['gdp_growth']
unemp = raw['unemployment']
nfp   = raw['nfp']

curr_gdp   = latest(gdp)
curr_unemp = latest(unemp)
unemp_1y   = change_1y(unemp)
nfp_mom    = float(nfp.iloc[-1] - nfp.iloc[-2]) if len(nfp) >= 2 else None

display(HTML(render_cards([
    {'label': 'Real GDP Growth (QoQ Ann.)', 'value': fmt_pct(curr_gdp)},
    {'label': 'Unemployment Rate',          'value': fmt_pct(curr_unemp)},
    {'label': 'NFP MoM Change (K)',         'value': (f'{nfp_mom:+,.0f}K' if nfp_mom is not None else 'N/A')},
    {'label': 'Unemployment 1Y Change',     'value': (f'{unemp_1y:+.2f}pp' if unemp_1y is not None else 'N/A')},
])))

plt.figure(figsize=(8, 4.5))

if not gdp.empty:
    bar_colors = [FL_BLUE if v >= 0 else FL_RED for v in gdp.values]
    plt.bar(
        gdp.index,
        gdp.values,
        color=bar_colors,
        alpha=0.80,
        width=60
    )
    plt.axhline(0, color=FL_GRID, linewidth=0.8)

plt.ylabel('Growth (%)')
plt.title('Real GDP growth (QoQ annualized)')
plt.gca().yaxis.set_major_formatter(
    mticker.FuncFormatter(lambda v, _: f'{v:.1f}%')
)
plt.gca().xaxis.set_major_locator(mdates.YearLocator(4))
plt.gca().xaxis.set_major_formatter(mdates.DateFormatter('%Y'))
plt.tick_params(axis='both', which='both', length=0)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

plt.figure(figsize=(8, 4.5))

if not unemp.empty:
    plt.fill_between(unemp.index, unemp.values, alpha=0.12, color=FL_BLUE)
    plt.plot(unemp.index, unemp.values, color=FL_BLUE, linewidth=1.8)

plt.ylabel('Unemployment rate (%)')
plt.title('Unemployment rate')
plt.gca().yaxis.set_major_formatter(
    mticker.FuncFormatter(lambda v, _: f'{v:.1f}%')
)
plt.gca().xaxis.set_major_locator(mdates.YearLocator(4))
plt.gca().xaxis.set_major_formatter(mdates.DateFormatter('%Y'))
plt.tick_params(axis='both', which='both', length=0)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

d2g      = raw['debt_to_gdp']
tot_debt = raw['total_debt']       # millions → convert to trillions for display
int_pmts = raw['interest_pmts']    # quarterly billions → annualize ×4

curr_d2g      = latest(d2g)
curr_tot_debt = latest(tot_debt)
curr_int      = latest(int_pmts)

tot_debt_T  = curr_tot_debt / 1e6  if curr_tot_debt is not None else None
int_ann_T   = (curr_int * 4) / 1e3 if curr_int is not None else None

display(HTML(render_cards([
    {'label': 'Debt / GDP',          'value': fmt_pct(curr_d2g, d=1)},
    {'label': 'Total Public Debt',   'value': (f'${tot_debt_T:.1f}T' if tot_debt_T is not None else 'N/A')},
    {'label': 'Net Interest (Ann.)', 'value': (f'${int_ann_T:.2f}T'  if int_ann_T  is not None else 'N/A')},
])))

plt.figure(figsize=(8, 4.5))

for s, label, color, lw, ls in [
    (cpi, 'CPI YoY', FL_BLUE, 2.0, '-'),
    (core_cpi, 'Core CPI YoY', FL_SLATE, 1.4, '--'),
    (pce, 'PCE YoY', FL_AMBER, 1.4, ':'),
]:
    if not s.empty:
        plt.plot(
            s.index,
            s.values,
            color=color,
            linewidth=lw,
            linestyle=ls,
            label=label
        )

plt.axhline(2.0, color=FL_GRID, linewidth=1.0, linestyle='--', label='Fed target (2%)')
plt.ylabel('Inflation (%)')
plt.title('Inflation measures (YoY)')
plt.gca().yaxis.set_major_formatter(
    mticker.FuncFormatter(lambda v, _: f'{v:.1f}%')
)
plt.gca().xaxis.set_major_locator(mdates.YearLocator(4))
plt.gca().xaxis.set_major_formatter(mdates.DateFormatter('%Y'))
plt.legend()
plt.tick_params(axis='both', which='both', length=0)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

plt.figure(figsize=(8, 4.5))

for s, label, color, lw, ls in [
    (be5, '5Y Breakeven', FL_BLUE, 1.8, '-'),
    (be10, '10Y Breakeven', FL_SLATE, 1.4, '--'),
]:
    if not s.empty:
        plt.plot(
            s.index,
            s.values,
            color=color,
            linewidth=lw,
            linestyle=ls,
            label=label
        )

plt.axhline(2.0, color=FL_GRID, linewidth=1.0, linestyle='--', label='Fed target (2%)')
plt.ylabel('Breakeven inflation (%)')
plt.title('Market-implied breakeven inflation')
plt.gca().yaxis.set_major_formatter(
    mticker.FuncFormatter(lambda v, _: f'{v:.1f}%')
)
plt.gca().xaxis.set_major_locator(mdates.YearLocator(4))
plt.gca().xaxis.set_major_formatter(mdates.DateFormatter('%Y'))
plt.legend()
plt.tick_params(axis='both', which='both', length=0)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()

inflation_summary_df = pd.DataFrame([
    {
        'Metric': 'Headline CPI',
        'Value': fmt_pct(curr_cpi) if curr_cpi is not None else 'N/A'
    },
    {
        'Metric': 'Core CPI',
        'Value': fmt_pct(curr_core) if curr_core is not None else 'N/A'
    },
    {
        'Metric': 'PCE',
        'Value': fmt_pct(curr_pce) if curr_pce is not None else 'N/A'
    },
    {
        'Metric': '5Y breakeven',
        'Value': fmt_pct(curr_be5) if curr_be5 is not None else 'N/A'
    },
    {
        'Metric': '10Y breakeven',
        'Value': fmt_pct(curr_be10) if curr_be10 is not None else 'N/A'
    }
])

display(inflation_summary_df)